Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency
1999

Table of Contents
Author's Preface
Foreword by Douglas MacEachin
Introduction by Jack Davis
PART I--OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking; Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There to Be Seen?; Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
PART II--TOOLS FOR THINKING
Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information; Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?
Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind; Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems
Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
PART III--COGNITIVE BIASES
Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases?; Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence; Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect; Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities; Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
PART IV--CONCLUSIONS
Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence Analysis

plus-circle Add Review

comment

Reviews